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Fred Hofstetter on September 3, 2017
Making the first out puts baseball teams at a serious disadvantage. Players who do not make the first out are more valuable.
Rickey Henderson was a tremendous baseball player – but notorious for making the first out. Photo Credit: Gary Stevens
New analysis reveals a troubling trend around Major League Baseball – general managers are repeatedly and knowingly acquiring players with extensive track records of making the first out – at any base.
Making the first out in baseball at any base puts offenses 33% closer to making three outs. Three outs ends the inning and hands the bats over to the other team – making the OTHER team 100% more likely to score runs. Players who make the first out at any base are the catalyst for every inning’s inevitable doom.
Major League baseball teams in 2017 must understand the importance of avoiding first outs at all costs. Average run expectancy on a per-inning basis plummets after the first out:
| Average # of runs scored | Chance run will score in inning | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 out, no one on | 0.481 | 0.268 |
| 1 out, no one on | 0.254 | 0.155 |
| % decrease | 47% | 42% |
Making the first out at third base is cataclysmic. I crunched the numbers:
| Average # of runs scored | Chance run will score in inning | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 out, no one on | 0.481 | 0.268 |
| After out made at 3rd or any base | 0.254 | 0.155 |
| % decrease | 47% | 42% |
It’s hard to believe for so long baseball has suffered from a complete lack of critical thinking and succumbed to brainless tradition. Why would you make an out at any base? The alternative is clearly superior – reaching base and NOT making an out. Without making an out, you put the other team in a very difficult position.
For too long we’ve idolized baseball “legends” who have glorified the out. Here’s a list of charlatans who’ve done the game a great disservice:
| Overrated Player | Outs Made |
|---|---|
| Pete Rose | 10328 |
| Hank Aaron | 9136 |
| Carl Yastrzemski | 9126 |
| Cal Ripken | 8893 |
| Eddie Murray | 8569 |
| Rickey Henderson | 8510 |
| Omar Vizquel | 8433 |
| Dave Winfield | 8422 |
| Robin Yount | 8415 |
| Brooks Robinson | 8340 |
| Craig Biggio | 8272 |
| Derek Jeter | 8269 |
| Luis Aparicio | 8110 |
| Willie Mays | 8056 |
| Paul Molitor | 8040 |
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